Najee Makes a Final Push for Least Valuable Player – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 14 Update

Sometimes, you just need to know when to quit a player.

In 2022, Fantasy Football Least Valuable Player Tom Brady saw his percent started rate drop to 14% in Week 14 and Week 15.

Meanwhile, Najee Harris is in line to win LVP in 2023. His percent started rate has never dropped below 53% on non-bye weeks in his entire career, despite scoring under 10 fantasy points (half-ppr) in 17 of his last 35 games. Not only that, he has scored under 5 points four separate times in 2023 (Weeks 1, 2, 5, and 11) and hasn’t had a 20 point game since Week 11 of 2022.

That chart had nothing to do with Najee, or Hurts, for that matter.

I think it’s time to quit starting Najee. But as long as we don’t all collectively decide that, he does have a chance to avoid winning Least Valuable Player. Because if everyone starts him, he might gain back some FGW. If we all jump off now, his fate is essentially sealed.

Week 14 – Director’s Cut

If you want deeper analysis on Week 14, check out my article on FantasyPros!

This was a strange week for the top players. Look at those percent started numbers – outside of Aubrey, nobody was above 94%.

More injuries in Week 14: Herbert, Stroud, Nico, Jefferson…I gotta say, I miss the days of a 17-week regular season already. I don’t say that based on data, rather just based on my biased perception of everything.

I find it a little hard to believe Zeke was only 9% started. Rhamondre dropped to 21% by raw numbers (0% by those paying attention), so I would have expected even the impossible-to-predict success of a Pats RB to garner more than 9%.

MVP/Leaderboard Updates

That’s a lot of red for an MVP leaderboard.
  • This is the chart in my video thumbnail from the week – the total FGW of the top 20 by week.
  • It felt like a miracle that Tyreek came back into the game in Week 14. Not because of his injury, but because of how many brutal injuries we’ve seen lately for fantasy players.
  • Only 3 players have been above average for 3 weeks in a row – CMC, CeeDee, and – who would’ve guessed – Travis Kelce! Guess Taylor’s Woman of the Year announcement didn’t distract him too much.
Way too many defenses and kickers. What is this world coming to?
  • When it comes time to declare the Return on Investment winner for 2023, we have to seriously consider whether a 5th overall Tyreek is eligible for the award. The problem with saying he was the best value is it’s strange to say a value was only available for a handful of teams to pick in snake drafts.
  • Brandon Aubrey is above the top ROI kickers for both 2021 (0.50, Justin Tucker) and 2022 (0.45, Daniel Carlson and Tucker).
Show me what you got, what you got, Najee
  • Very strange that Tua is so low (-0.52) while Tyreek is so high (2.29). Partly why I keep expecting a Jaylen Waddle game before the season’s out.
  • Elf on the Shelf, Tyler Lockett in my pocket, I thought CeeDee Lamb on a Pram was pretty good (at least for the Brits in the audience).
  • Looking at the bottom 10, there are only a few players you can consider starting for Week 15 (and thus could continue to hurt your) – Najee, McLaurin, T-Law, and Godwin. I think Najee’s got LVP in the bag.
Stick that Chubb in a Burrow, now!
  • Looking at low advance rates, it lines up well with the bottom of this list. Except for Najee (only here) and Jefferson (only there). I’m going to be thinking about that a lot in the offseason – is it noise, or can dFGW improve?
  • Honestly, I’m just glad Kupp isn’t winning the Disappearance of Investment title. I couldn’t do that to one of the poster children (poster childs?) of FGW.

Najee Whiz, That Was a Tough Week

Now that I’m done looking up Najee puns, we can get this week wrapped up. Posting this on the only day in a multi-day stretch here with NFL content on the slate. If you’re still in it, good luck with whatever nonsense Week 15 still has in store for us, and remember we’re all going down in this Fantasy Football ship together.

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