Since the beginning of the Fantasy Games Won blog series, it has been a fully retrospective post. The idea is the commiserate on the absurdity that Fantasy Football often is – to put into context the voodoo-like nature of “every time I bench James Cook, he goes off!” laments from Fantasy Football managers.
That conformity ends this week. Now, I will try to help you win fantasy football matchups. Try.
Before I get too far, the Fantasy Games Won post for Week 1 is over on FantasyPros. You can check that out below. Starting in Week 2, I’ll do a bit of a leaderboard update over here.
What is Rankings Accord?
Fantasy Football has a ton of experts that are jockeying to make the most accurate predictions online. I may have jumped into that horse race 20 years ago if I were 20 years older at the time. There is, in my opinion, sufficient brainpower dedicated to that exercise today.
I believe the best value I can bring to the fantasy community is through attempting to measure the bias of the blob that is fantasy experts.
Here’s where Rankings Accord comes into play. Every week, I will take a look at expert rankings and point out the spots where I see either:
- Quarterbacks under-ranked versus the teammates they’ll be feeding
- Skill position groups under-ranked versus their rock-providing QB
As we’re just getting this started, it’ll be a bit finicky as we calibrate the metric, but let’s see who’s coming up as a premium in Week 2.
Who Do You Expect to Throw the Ball, Anyway?
- Let’s be clear – part of Uncle Rico’s ranking comes from the expectation that he will be benched. The problem is Aidan O’Connell and the rest of the backup Raiders are probably joining Napoleon and Pedro at the casino just to feel like they have a chance at winning.
- However, if he does not get benched…Minshew’s somehow supporting 5 skills players making expert rankings lists: Brock Bowers (TE10), Davante (WR20), Jakobi (WR53), Zamir White (RB33), and Alexander Mattison (RB41)
- The “Coverage” number is a measure of how much of Minshew’s ranking covers the skill player implied projection. Higher coverage means the QB tends to project well relative to the ranked skill players (maybe they have a lot of unranked receivers that are OK, or the QB runs a lot). The reason I’m showing it is if a QB’s coverage number is way lower than their typical coverage, that could signal a player is undervalued.
- Geno has 6 players showing up on rank lists this week: Metcalf, Lockett, JSN, K9 (Kenneth Walker III), Zach Charbonnet, and Noah Fant. Yeah, Fant made the list.
- Geno might be getting a downgrade in the rankings because a lot of his skill guys are upside-plays. It still seems low, IMO. People have really started to move on from Geno as a QB that gets any level of thought.
- GEQBUS is really there to support Justin Jefferson, right? How can he be rank 26 when he’s throwing to Jettas?
- Compared to Minshew, Darnold seems like a safe bet to stay on the field. Nick Mullens isn’t coming in for Week 2.
Dart Throw Receiving Corps
- As bad as Bryce Young is, even a bad QB usually has skill players scoring something. Maybe it’ll be Chuba or Diontae outscoring their projection, maybe it’ll be a scrub they pick out of the stands Sunday morning.
- Last week, Demario Douglas was the 60th ranked WR for NFL.com. Now they have nobody.
- BTW, I use NFL.com rankings because of their archival data. Easy to go back in time if I miss logging the ranks before they’re pulled off the internet.
Let me know what you think of these perspectives. If they’re confusing as fuck, then safe to say I have lived up to my reputation.
Good luck in Week 2, it’s been a privilege and an honor.
Byron Cobalt's Lazy Analysis 