Fantasy Games Won – Page 5 – Byron Cobalt's Lazy Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Stole Cooper Kupp’s Belt While He Was Sleeping – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 11 Update

What is FGW? Check it out here: https://byroncobalt.com/2021/09/19/introducing-the-fantasy-game-wins-fgw-fantasy-football-player-scoring-system/

Week 11, by the numbers, was by far the craziest week of the season so far (in my opinion). Fireworks included:

The biggest week of the year so far (Jonathan Taylor).
2 players (Taylor and Austin Ekeler) above the 0.40 FGW mark – when we only had 4 from weeks 1-10.
The 2 worst single-week FGW performances of the year so far (Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes).
A new overall leader (Taylor).
AND, I figured out the running issue I’ve been having with kickers and defense!

Marquise Brown is King of the Bench – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 10 Update

What is FGW? Check it out here: https://byroncobalt.com/2021/09/19/introducing-the-fantasy-game-wins-fgw-fantasy-football-player-scoring-system/

One of the cool things – maybe the whole point – about keeping FGW stats is the fact that we can actually see which players have “wasted” the most performance on the bench.

The life of a Fantasy Football manager is having a player on your team have a huge week on the bench, followed by you starting him when he poops the bed. Straight to the bench, he goes off, you go off, life goes on.

Hollywood Brown by raw performance has been a near top 5 WR (8th most points scored, 6th biggest raw “impact” number), but he’s done almost all of his “performing” on the bench. His Fantasy Games Won number is 0.02, good for WR19 – merely an average starter.

There’s a Good Chance Mike Williams Has Hurt Your Team – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 9 Update

What is FGW? Check it out here: https://byroncobalt.com/2021/09/19/introducing-the-fantasy-game-wins-fgw-fantasy-football-player-scoring-system/

Attempting the Saturday morning as I was “overcome by events” in trying to get it out on time. We’ll see if this is a better slot!

One of the most common comments I received earlier in the season was “hey, why isn’t Mike Williams like literally the top player on your metric?”

The easy answer here is, for Mike Williams’ solid weeks 1 and 2, he did most of the damage on people’s benches. This was true both before and after my incorporation of expert rankings to try and distill “good” fantasy manager % started rates. But how much did it impact Williams exactly?

Eight Games of Derrick Henry Was Worth a Top 3 Pick – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 8 Update

Derrick Henry is who you thought he was – and he let you off the hook.

The biggest way that a player can hurt your fantasy team is if you start him and doesn’t score points.

The second biggest way that a player can hurt your fantasy team is if he takes up a bench slot on your team, but never breaks your starting lineup. He took the spot of another player that could have made a difference. (The perfect bench player is the one with the highest chance of future returns.)

Derrick Henry has won you about 1.44 games in 2021, and that will be his final number for the regular season. How many other players will have a bigger by then?

Patrick Mahomes Just Had The Worst Week of the Fantasy Season So Far – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 7 Update

If I were a bit more liberal with specificity in my headlines, the title would read like this:

Patrick Mahomes Negatively Impacted His Fantasy Owners More Than Any Other Player Has in a Single Week So Far This Season – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 7 Update

Mahomes just scored 8.74 points last week. That might seem like a surprising number to earn “worst week of the year” with. Here’s how it stacks up with the second worst week of the year by FGW standards: Aaron Rodgers’ Week 1.

You Had One Job…and it was to Draft Jalen Hurts – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 6 Update

The above advice is directed at any fantasy managers that used the Late Round Quarterback strategy this year, or fantasy managers that played in leagues with average joes where quarterbacks are just irresistible after that draft bell goes off.

Before explaining this, I’ve decided to start aligning the metric to ADP alongside the usual numbers. It seems like at least 25% of people that have followed this metric this year have come away thinking Fantasy Games Won is already a metric measuring games won vs. ADP. It’s an understandable intuition – after all, the (arguably) main way you win in fantasy is via maximizing value at each draft pick/auction dollar.

The metric isn’t that, though. It’s measuring games won vs. average performance. So the first rounders should have higher FGW scores than the second rounders, and so on.

So I’ve begun calculating Draft-adjusted Fantasy Games Won (dFGW) so that we can not only track player performance, but player value as well.

Picking Dalvin Cook Over Derrick Henry Probably Cost You A Win Already – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 5 Update

I had the 3rd pick in the first Fantasy Football draft I took part in this year. Was pretty excited when #2 took Derrick Henry over Dalvin Cook. Condescendingly excited. Doesn’t this guy know we play half-PPR? The Titans lost their coordinator! What a hype-chaser.

Wasn’t the first time I underrated Derrick Henry.

One of my eyeball metrics for measuring how good a college running back will do in the NFL is how hard they hit the hole. I ended up with a lot of Justin Forsett just before his breakout, having remembered his college tape. I had made the claim during a Bama game that Henry doesn’t hit the hole hard enough. On something like the next play, he picked up the easiest 8 yards up the middle I’ve ever seen; it looked like the defensive line was playing two-hand touch.

It was an optical illusion: Henry doesn’t need to try hard, at all, to slam it up the hole.

Let’s recap Week 5 before I start getting hits from incognito searches. Here is where I detail how the FGW metric works.

Week 5 Winners and Week 5 Losers

Allen Robinson, Captain of the Titanic – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 4 Update

After week 3, the most obviously revelation of the FGW metric was the consistent awesomeness of Cooper Kupp; a player that was relatively unheralded this year compared to his performance. He was consistently great, but not earth-shatteringly so.

On the flipside, after week 4, FGW is confirming the punishing nature of Allen Robinson’s first quarter of 2021. Everyone knows A-Rob has been a lead anchor for fantasy teams so far. No surprise that’s he’s just about fallen to (just about) the bottom of the FGW leaderboard.

Week 4 Winners and Losers

Cooper Kupp Lifts You Up – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 3 Update

Week 3 has seen some quarterbacks get their season on track (Josh Allen, Justin Herbert), some in-game injuries sink some weeks (Christian McCaffrey, AJ Brown), but most notably by FGW measurement…

Cooper Kupp is easily the MVP of Fantasy Football through week 3.

Before getting to that, a look at the Week 3 helped-you-winners and helped-you-losers.

Who won the week?

Week 2 FGW Update: Congrats to all the 2-0 Kyler Murray owners

With week 2 in the books, we now have a Leaderboard to track. But first, let’s break down the week 2 results.

For an explanation on FGW, I wrote that up here: Introducing the Fantasy Game Wins (FGW) Fantasy Football Player Scoring System.

Category: Fantasy Games Won

Jonathan Taylor Stole Cooper Kupp’s Belt While He Was Sleeping – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 11 Update

Marquise Brown is King of the Bench – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 10 Update

There’s a Good Chance Mike Williams Has Hurt Your Team – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 9 Update

Eight Games of Derrick Henry Was Worth a Top 3 Pick – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 8 Update

Patrick Mahomes Just Had The Worst Week of the Fantasy Season So Far – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 7 Update

You Had One Job…and it was to Draft Jalen Hurts – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 6 Update

Picking Dalvin Cook Over Derrick Henry Probably Cost You A Win Already – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 5 Update

Week 5 Winners and Week 5 Losers

Allen Robinson, Captain of the Titanic – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 4 Update

Week 4 Winners and Losers

Cooper Kupp Lifts You Up – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 3 Update

Who won the week?

Week 2 FGW Update: Congrats to all the 2-0 Kyler Murray owners

Who won you the week?