Football – Page 6 – Byron Cobalt's Lazy Analysis

There’s a Good Chance Mike Williams Has Hurt Your Team – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 9 Update

What is FGW? Check it out here: https://byroncobalt.com/2021/09/19/introducing-the-fantasy-game-wins-fgw-fantasy-football-player-scoring-system/

Attempting the Saturday morning as I was “overcome by events” in trying to get it out on time. We’ll see if this is a better slot!

One of the most common comments I received earlier in the season was “hey, why isn’t Mike Williams like literally the top player on your metric?”

The easy answer here is, for Mike Williams’ solid weeks 1 and 2, he did most of the damage on people’s benches. This was true both before and after my incorporation of expert rankings to try and distill “good” fantasy manager % started rates. But how much did it impact Williams exactly?

Eight Games of Derrick Henry Was Worth a Top 3 Pick – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 8 Update

Derrick Henry is who you thought he was – and he let you off the hook.

The biggest way that a player can hurt your fantasy team is if you start him and doesn’t score points.

The second biggest way that a player can hurt your fantasy team is if he takes up a bench slot on your team, but never breaks your starting lineup. He took the spot of another player that could have made a difference. (The perfect bench player is the one with the highest chance of future returns.)

Derrick Henry has won you about 1.44 games in 2021, and that will be his final number for the regular season. How many other players will have a bigger by then?

Patrick Mahomes Just Had The Worst Week of the Fantasy Season So Far – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 7 Update

If I were a bit more liberal with specificity in my headlines, the title would read like this:

Patrick Mahomes Negatively Impacted His Fantasy Owners More Than Any Other Player Has in a Single Week So Far This Season – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 7 Update

Mahomes just scored 8.74 points last week. That might seem like a surprising number to earn “worst week of the year” with. Here’s how it stacks up with the second worst week of the year by FGW standards: Aaron Rodgers’ Week 1.

You Had One Job…and it was to Draft Jalen Hurts – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 6 Update

The above advice is directed at any fantasy managers that used the Late Round Quarterback strategy this year, or fantasy managers that played in leagues with average joes where quarterbacks are just irresistible after that draft bell goes off.

Before explaining this, I’ve decided to start aligning the metric to ADP alongside the usual numbers. It seems like at least 25% of people that have followed this metric this year have come away thinking Fantasy Games Won is already a metric measuring games won vs. ADP. It’s an understandable intuition – after all, the (arguably) main way you win in fantasy is via maximizing value at each draft pick/auction dollar.

The metric isn’t that, though. It’s measuring games won vs. average performance. So the first rounders should have higher FGW scores than the second rounders, and so on.

So I’ve begun calculating Draft-adjusted Fantasy Games Won (dFGW) so that we can not only track player performance, but player value as well.