What is FGW? Check out the full lowdown here or watch the video here.
TL;DR – FGW is the number of Head-to-Head fantasy football matchups a player has won his team, on average. dFGW is FGW adjusted for draft ADP rank.
Raheem Mostert was roughly a 9th round pick in 2023 Fantasy Drafts. Through Week 6 he has produced 0.64 more wins than the average starting Fantasy RB. 7 other players drafted after DJ Moore (52nd ranked player by ADP) have net positive Fantasy Games Won through 6 weeks (Aiyuk, Montgomery, Mike Williams, Kamara, Evans, Swift, and Tua). Combined, they have provided 0.55 more wins than average starters at their position.
The question of did you have a good draft from rounds 6-10 comes down to this: Did you draft Mostert?
If yes, yes. If no, then no, not really.
Now, that’s not to say there haven’t been more important picks earlier in the draft this year. Taking Tyreek over Ekeler would have been worth over a full win (on average) so far. If you took Chubb over Diggs, you cost yourself almost a win with just that one pick as well.
Picking Mostert would have cancelled out a bad pick in Round 3 (e.g. Najee, Gibbs) or Round 4 (Burrow, Pierce).
Now, if you made multiple “bad” picks – even Mostert hasn’t been enough to get you back on track. I might be able to help with that, though.
If you’re sitting at 0-6 and don’t have a way to make playoffs on points…cya next year.
But if you’re at 2-4 or 1-5, you can conceivably recover from that. But you can’t make any mistakes. I made a video this list that outlines all the things you need to do avoid mistakes – it’s a compilation of the fundamentals of fantasy football. I call it the Cobalt Cadence.
The Cobalt Cadence doesn’t get into ‘scouting’ football. It doesn’t tell you how to identify high-upside players. It tells you what you need to do every week, and how you do it is up to you. Fantasy experts won’t find anything groundbreaking here. But experienced and virgin managers alike can benefit from seeing the fundamentals laid bare, so I hope you check it out.
Who Won The Week?
- Which is the better pun, Raheem Must-Start or Raheem Mustard? Is there another one we’re missing? This is important.
- Check it out, Cooper Kupp is back. Like, really back.
- Etienne not making me look dumb for saying he’s a 2024 first rounder! This almost makes me want to keep track of my predictions. Just kidding, I will not be doing that. I’ll stick to hot dog puns. I like my puns toasted.
- Thielen getting started now! The average Thielen owner has only started him twice this year (combined 207% started over 6 weeks).
- Breece had a fine enough week, but the lowest bar for the top 15 in any week so far this year
Who Lost The Week?
- James Cook inexplicably lost some run to Latavius Murray. It seems like “sharing the RB room with Latavius Murray” is one of the lowest-security jobs you can hold. New Orleans, Baltimore, Denver, now Buffalo. Maybe he just does a good job of staying next to the coaches making the personnel swaps.
- Never has it been more clear that Gabe Davis needs to go back to being Gabriel Davis.
- Cooper Troopa taking volume from Puka. You have to pronounce that like a Kennedy to get the full effect.
- Montgomery hurt his ribs landing on the ball apparently. Someone get Brady’s trainer in here to deflate that.
- Justin Fields is Exhibit Z on how rough it is to have a QB get hurt. You need so many points from QBs to be average than an injury just kills you. It’s the other side of the coin for the advantages of running QBs in fantasy – the downside in-game injury potential.
- Every time I see Calvin Ridley now, I’m reminded of how much Booger talked about the Jags needing to feed him the ball in the Toy Story game.
Junior Varsity (Bench) All-Stars
- Fun fact: the Vikings got 10 points for scalping a thumb from Fields
- Rashid Shaheed starting to show up a bit, top skill player on the JV List
- Jared Goff down to 10% started – or maybe his % started didn’t really go down and it’s just an illusion, like the sun. If the reason nobody starts him is because of Hard Knocks, I get it 100%.
- Adam Thielen actually still doing JV/Varsity double duty. Keeping Achane’s seat warm.
Leaderboard Updates
- Tyreek with more space over the top than he usually even gets on crossing routes
- Christian’s obliques had first communion in the blue tent
- Learned during the Chargers game that Donald Parham is 6’8”. And speaking of Chargers tight ends, is Stone Smartt a compliment or an insult? I’m not sure…
- Mostert running away from a K9 for the RB2 spot.
- Amon-Ra above Cole Kmet on the board game namesake leaderboard (Amun Re vs. Kemet)
- Thielen with a big boost due to draft slot. If you don’t have Thielen, just remember that you easily could have had him.
- Jefferson about to fall off the list due to the #1 draft slot. Shame. He was -0.12 this week due to not playing. Interestingly, Puka was also -0.12, though that was because he did play and had a bad game.
- Fields is the roller coaster this year. Although RollerCoaster Tycoon is the one of the games you really can’t play with your thumbs, so it fits.
- After being dominator by WRs in years past, now 10 of the bottom 14 are RBs. RBs, a few QBs, and Tee Higgins. Hi, Tee.
- Lawrence hasn’t had a really bad game in 4 weeks but is still chipping away at your team.
- Burrow digging deeper on Najee’s bye week. Really curious what owners do with Najee next week. RB is a disaster zone.
- Nick Chubb might fall to the bottom here, just because of his 7th overall draft slot. Losing 0.09 per week is bad, though Burrow and Harris will get replacement-level score drops if they stop getting started in fantasy, too.
- Burrow owners are on average 2.06-3.94 this year. On average.
- Tyreek already with a better 2023 than he had in 2021 with the Chiefs.
- New England backs into 17th thanks to Deebo’s injury.
The Full List
- Just look at how Mostert measures up. All the players combined that are above average after the DJ Moore pick (R5, #52) don’t add up to as many positive FGW points as Mostert.
Week 6 Swims With The Dolphins
If you drafted a bunch of Dolphins, then I congratulate you on a solid first-third of the season. If you didn’t, well, just remember we’re all going down in this fantasy football ship together. It’s been a privilege and an honor.
Byron Cobalt's Lazy Analysis 