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If you graded 2023 fantasy players on a curve, where 0% is last place in FGW, and 100% is 1st place in FGW, you’d have two main competitors for valedictorian: Tyreek Hill (A+) and Christian McCaffrey (A, 97%).
Not only does nobody else get an A, but nobody else gets a B. Or even a C+.
Wait, what is FGW? Here’s where I explain that in writing and on YouTube.
TL;DR: FGW is the likely change in win percentage of Head-to-Head fantasy football matchups a player has won his team. dFGW is FGW adjusted for ADP. Going from 50% to 95% is FGW of 0.45. % Started also matters.
This MVP battle is shaping up to be a two-horse race for the ages.
Keenan Allen, our lone C-graded player, has been very good, but not league-winningly great. CeeDee Lamb got all his value from a 3-game stretch from weeks 8-10. Josh Allen had almost a third of his value in Week 12 alone. Dallas Defense, as strangely good as they’ve been, have been out of the discussion since Week 3’s dud against Arizona.
(If a team defense ever wins Fantasy Football MVP, I’m retiring. Not even giving a 2-week notice. I’ll be done faster than Barbaro at the Preakness.)
Let’s take a quick look at Week 12 before I turn this into a Polo article.
Week 12 – Director’s Cut
If you want deeper cuts on Week 12, check out my post on FantasyPros!
- A lot of typical fantasy studs on the Week 12 winners this week – Josh Allen, McCaffrey, Hurts, Dak, Tyreek, even Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry.
- That sound you hear is a huge sigh of relief from Bijan managers, 91% of which started him this week.
- No single player blew the doors off their fantasy team this week, as the worst skill player (Thielen) was only started 66% and the worst QB (Fields) scored 10.6 points.
- Dalton Schultz at 71% started sticks out to me. “Buddy” Schultz is not making any friends here, especially given whom you could have started…
- And so it begins – another stretch of Higbee and Freiermuth getting put into lineups and probably staying in the single-digits for a few weeks, before getting benched again.
- I will never roster Gabe Davis again. At least not until he goes back to Gabriel.
- Let’s keep an eye on Rice and Watson next week. Both should see a notable increase in started rate, and both are still in the sexy prospect stage of their careers.
MVP + Leaderboard Updates
- With a huge week, McCaffrey gains 0.12 on Tyreek, whom only had a mildly big week. Actually a below average week for Tyreek, his 7th best this year.
- AJ Regular Brown narrowly leading AR St. Brown. They have similar last names, similar MVP stature, similar position, and similar dynasty outlook.
- I would keep referring to AJ Brown as AJ “The” Brown a la Radagast if not for the slightly obscure nature of that reference and how it could be taken in an unfortunate direction.
- Let’s sing the song of TJ Hockenson again!
- Housekeeping note: I had a mini-epiphany on how I should be calculating dFGW. The rate at which players actually play should be part of the baseline expectation for the draft slot. More to come next week.
- I mentally cannot comment on a metric I know I will change, but I will say Dallas will probably do better with the update as they’re never injured. Team Defenses are almost never out due to injury.
- Tyler Lockett showing up on the list! Rumor has it if you look at his name for too long, he senses it, and slides to get down wherever he happens to be standing.
- Justin Fields just wants to beat out a USC guy in a QB competition.
- Is James Conner about to lose work to Michael Carter? Also, I seem to recall Kirk Herbstreit mistakenly saying that Brandin Echols was filling in for “recently cut” Michael Carter, confusing the Jets’ Michael Carters in the process. Oh, wait, never mind, that game never happened.
- Getting out of the bottom spot isn’t going to be that easy, Sunshine Lawrence. You still have to overcome the paralysis of your all-state linebacker to complete the story.
- Perhaps the dFGW calculation update next week will save him from being the first player to win two different FGW season-long awards.
- Meanwhile, Tyreek passed Travis Kelce for the top FGW slot since the beginning of 2021! This is notably partly because Kelce has still been the top Tight End in 2023. Just more evidence for how absurd Hill has been.
- I may start tracking this better in future weeks, but AJ Brown was already pretty close to the top 20 before this week. He was like 21st or so.
Giving Thanks for Chalk Quarterback Performances
My Thanksgiving weekend for Fantasy Football went something like this…
- Thanksgiving Eve: Cobalt family traveling cancelled due to 3-year-old being Questionable with a fever. Looking like a good week provided he got better before kickoff.
- Thanksgiving games: 3-year-old doing better, but boring football, Looking like a bad week.
- Black Friday: What Black Friday game? I don’t remember a Black Friday game.
- Sunday until 5:30PM: Looking like a good week again.
- Sunday after 5:30PM: Really wish I had more Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. Looking like a bad week.
- Monday after 10:00PM: Hockenson saved one team and Greg Joseph failed to save an opponent. Overall good Thanksgiving weekend.
Hopefully you’re not questionable for Week 13 with a fever. But if you are, just remember we’re all going down in this fantasy football ship together. It’s been a privilege and an honor, good luck in Week 13.
Byron Cobalt's Lazy Analysis 