Byron Cobalt

I’m Afraid The Correct First Pick Was KELCE, Yes, KELCE was the correct answer – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 11 Update

What is FGW? Go back to the shadows, I mean Go Back To Week 1.

Short Version – FGW is the likely number of Head-to-Head fantasy football matchups a player has won his team. dFGW is FGW adjusted for ADP.

I know, I know, the season isn’t over yet. But some teams are starting to get eliminated – so the leader after Week 11 is a big deal, and Kelce has a big lead.

And Kelce rarely made it to Round 3 in any draft, so the only guarantee to get Kelce was to take him when you had the chance. 1st overall couldn’t wait for him in Round 2.

It’s also possible I’m not making any sense. Like many of us, I’m logging in from an unusual location with way more blood relatives within 100 yards than is typical. I will leverage the extra calories from Thanksgiving to plow through and properly channel any additional family-induced gratuitous hot takes.

A Tempest In A Tea Kupp – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 10 Update

What is FGW? Go back to the shadows, I mean Go Back To Week 1.

Let’s freak out for a second.

What if Cooper Kupp is done for the season? With the way that the injuries have gone with fellow (albeit older) receivers Keenan Allen and Michael Thomas, it’s not too hard to imagine a scenario where Kupp’s usefulness for 2022 has come to an end.

Kupp’s FGW for 2022 currently sits at 1.0. If he misses the rest of the fantasy regular season he’ll be at around 0.85, if you assume a -0.03 “replacement” factor.

Last year, an FGW of 0.85 would have landed Kupp in a tie with Joe Mixon for 11th overall after 15 weeks:

Never Tell Me The Odds…Except For Joe Mixon Scoring Five Touchdowns, Tell Me Those Odds – Fantasy Games Won Week 9 Update

What is FGW? Go back to the shadows, I mean Go Back To Week 1.

Last year, we saw Jonathan Taylor score 5 touchdowns in Week 11. It was in that game that he effectively surpassed Derrick Henry as the consensus next-year-first-overall-pick at RB.

That’s not the case for Joey Mix. Through the first 8 games, he was hurting fantasy lineups more than he was helping them, with a -0.07 FGW throughout.

After this week? He’s into the 2nd round – #23 overall in FGW. Because believe it or not, only 15 players have created more wins for their average fantasy team this season than Mixon did in one game (where he just scored 0.48, basically bringing your team from 50% chance of win to 98%, all by himself.)

I Think Christian McCaffrey Just Swam For A Touchdown – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 8 Update

What is FGW? Go back to the shadows, I mean Go Back To Week 1.

Back in 2012, I started doing my own “Devy League” mock draft every year.

For those not familiar, a Devy League is a dynasty league where you can draft players that are not yet in the NFL. My particular mock draft rules were simple:

2 rounds, 14 picks per round
Any player is eligible that was not ‘drafted’ the previous season

I’ll probably do a summary of the results as a post soon – 10 years are in the books, after all – but as a sneak preview, here are some highlights from 2012’s draft:

Time To Feel Bad For Those Stuck With The First Overall Pick – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 7 Update

What is FGW? Go back to the shadows, I mean Week 1.

I had an experience this past week that, I believe, gives me special insight into the life of a Jonathan Taylor owner in fantasy.

Not that I needed the insight – I do have Taylor in two leagues – but sometimes, things happen to you that perfectly encapsulate the the feelings of a greater community.

Last Friday night (I think it was Friday, I can barely keep track at this point), we put our 3 kids to bed, each snuggled up with their own shiny new strain of RSV.

Since the Start of the 2021 Season, the Top Fantasy Players Are: 1. Cooper Kupp, 2. Josh Allen – Fantasy Games Won Week 6 Update

What is FGW? Go back to the shadows, I mean Week 1.

This past week, I went back and applied the updates to FGW to 2021 data. Had two purposes in mind:

Update the dFGW equation
Start compiling the All Time FGW Leaderboard

I did not expect to find evidence that Josh Allen is setting himself to be a legitimate 1st round fantasy pick.

A Day May Come When Travis Kelce Fails, But It Is Not This Day – Fantasy Games Won Week 5 Update

What is FGW? Go back to the shadows, I mean Week 1.

An hour of wolves and shattered wallets when the Age of Travis Kelce comes crashing down, but it is not this day! Today we fight!

By all that you hold dear on this good earth, I bid you stand, people that drafted a 33 year old tight end in round 2!

(The soldiers draw swords.)

(The hobbits, barely able to walk after having drafted Najee Harris, start climbing Mount Doom.)

The Allen Robinson of 2022 is…Allen Robinson? – Fantasy Games Won Week 4 Update

What is FGW? Go to Week 1

One of the great things about 2021 was watching the Allen Robinson start off bad. Then, he stayed bad.

A few people jumped off the A-Rob wagon, but not all. Then he was bad again.

Robinson actually had a similar per-game fantasy PPG to players like Braxton Berrios (5.6). Looking back on 2021 only by points, though, might not reveal that Berrios didn’t really hurt any fantasy teams as he was barely started. Robinson, meanwhile, decimated several teams, especially in the first few weeks of the year.

2019 Called And They Want Their Lamar Jackson Back – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 3 Update

For an explanation of FGW, go back to Week 1.

The 2019 Lamar Jackson season was probably the last year you would see a major market inefficiency in evaluating rushing QBs.

Off the top of my head, the best mid-round fantasy picks of the last 20 years must go something like:

‘Take a Running Back in the First Round, They Said. It’s the Best Move For Upside, They Said.’ – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 2 Update

For an explanation of FGW, go back to Week 1.

2021 shaped up to be a bad year to have a “good” draft pick slot.

According to my wrap-up column last season, and assumed that a draft played exactly like ADP, picks 7-12 came out with a total FGW 5.22 higher than picks 1-6.

Obviously it shouldn’t work that way, since picks 1-6 have the choice of better players and the gap between player values diminishes as you go. So you’d think 2022 would turn out differently, right?