Microsoft Excel – Page 3 – Byron Cobalt's Lazy Analysis

If Your Goal Was To Miss The Playoffs, The Best Strategy Was To Draft Tom Brady – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 14 Update

What is FGW? Go back to the shadows, I mean Go Back To Week 1.

Short Version – FGW is the likely number of Head-to-Head fantasy football matchups a player has won his team. dFGW is FGW adjusted for ADP.

Tom Brady has spent the last 5 years making fantasy managers question their sanity as they hesitate to draft a 40/41/42/43/44 year old quarterback.

Now, finally, in his Age 45 season, it seems like he’s lost a step.

If You Want To Be A Hall-Of-Fame Quarterback, Just Throw To Davante Adams – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 13 Update

What is FGW? Go back to the shadows, I mean Go Back To Week 1.

Short Version – FGW is the likely number of Head-to-Head fantasy football matchups a player has won his team. dFGW is FGW adjusted for ADP.

For those following along with FGW since 2021 – or those who owned Davante Adams last year – you know he was almost the MVP fantasy football last year. Cooper Kupp was better in the regular season, Ja’Marr Chase was better in the playoffs, but Davante came through super hard in both parts of teh year.

On the Fantom Sports Fantasy podcast back between Week 10 and Week 11, I asked host Branden Timm whether he would want Justin Jefferson or Stefon Diggs the rest of the way. At the time, I thought that was a effectively the same question as asking “Who’s your WR1 for the rest of the season?”

I was clearly disrespecting Davante.

Josh Jacobs and Jalen Hurts Were The Steals of 2022 – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 12 Update

What is FGW? Go back to the shadows, I mean Go Back To Week 1.

Short Version – FGW is the likely number of Head-to-Head fantasy football matchups a player has won his team. dFGW is FGW adjusted for ADP.

If you look at the top 12 performers of 2022 so far, and check which rounds they were drafted on average, the list goes like this:

2nd Round, 3rd Round, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 5th, 5th, 1st, 2nd.

Those two fifth rounders: Josh Jacobs and Jalen Hurts.

I’m Afraid The Correct First Pick Was KELCE, Yes, KELCE was the correct answer – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 11 Update

What is FGW? Go back to the shadows, I mean Go Back To Week 1.

Short Version – FGW is the likely number of Head-to-Head fantasy football matchups a player has won his team. dFGW is FGW adjusted for ADP.

I know, I know, the season isn’t over yet. But some teams are starting to get eliminated – so the leader after Week 11 is a big deal, and Kelce has a big lead.

And Kelce rarely made it to Round 3 in any draft, so the only guarantee to get Kelce was to take him when you had the chance. 1st overall couldn’t wait for him in Round 2.

It’s also possible I’m not making any sense. Like many of us, I’m logging in from an unusual location with way more blood relatives within 100 yards than is typical. I will leverage the extra calories from Thanksgiving to plow through and properly channel any additional family-induced gratuitous hot takes.

A Tempest In A Tea Kupp – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 10 Update

What is FGW? Go back to the shadows, I mean Go Back To Week 1.

Let’s freak out for a second.

What if Cooper Kupp is done for the season? With the way that the injuries have gone with fellow (albeit older) receivers Keenan Allen and Michael Thomas, it’s not too hard to imagine a scenario where Kupp’s usefulness for 2022 has come to an end.

Kupp’s FGW for 2022 currently sits at 1.0. If he misses the rest of the fantasy regular season he’ll be at around 0.85, if you assume a -0.03 “replacement” factor.

Last year, an FGW of 0.85 would have landed Kupp in a tie with Joe Mixon for 11th overall after 15 weeks:

Never Tell Me The Odds…Except For Joe Mixon Scoring Five Touchdowns, Tell Me Those Odds – Fantasy Games Won Week 9 Update

What is FGW? Go back to the shadows, I mean Go Back To Week 1.

Last year, we saw Jonathan Taylor score 5 touchdowns in Week 11. It was in that game that he effectively surpassed Derrick Henry as the consensus next-year-first-overall-pick at RB.

That’s not the case for Joey Mix. Through the first 8 games, he was hurting fantasy lineups more than he was helping them, with a -0.07 FGW throughout.

After this week? He’s into the 2nd round – #23 overall in FGW. Because believe it or not, only 15 players have created more wins for their average fantasy team this season than Mixon did in one game (where he just scored 0.48, basically bringing your team from 50% chance of win to 98%, all by himself.)

I Think Christian McCaffrey Just Swam For A Touchdown – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 8 Update

What is FGW? Go back to the shadows, I mean Go Back To Week 1.

Back in 2012, I started doing my own “Devy League” mock draft every year.

For those not familiar, a Devy League is a dynasty league where you can draft players that are not yet in the NFL. My particular mock draft rules were simple:

2 rounds, 14 picks per round
Any player is eligible that was not ‘drafted’ the previous season

I’ll probably do a summary of the results as a post soon – 10 years are in the books, after all – but as a sneak preview, here are some highlights from 2012’s draft:

Time To Feel Bad For Those Stuck With The First Overall Pick – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 7 Update

What is FGW? Go back to the shadows, I mean Week 1.

I had an experience this past week that, I believe, gives me special insight into the life of a Jonathan Taylor owner in fantasy.

Not that I needed the insight – I do have Taylor in two leagues – but sometimes, things happen to you that perfectly encapsulate the the feelings of a greater community.

Last Friday night (I think it was Friday, I can barely keep track at this point), we put our 3 kids to bed, each snuggled up with their own shiny new strain of RSV.

Since the Start of the 2021 Season, the Top Fantasy Players Are: 1. Cooper Kupp, 2. Josh Allen – Fantasy Games Won Week 6 Update

What is FGW? Go back to the shadows, I mean Week 1.

This past week, I went back and applied the updates to FGW to 2021 data. Had two purposes in mind:

Update the dFGW equation
Start compiling the All Time FGW Leaderboard

I did not expect to find evidence that Josh Allen is setting himself to be a legitimate 1st round fantasy pick.

A Day May Come When Travis Kelce Fails, But It Is Not This Day – Fantasy Games Won Week 5 Update

What is FGW? Go back to the shadows, I mean Week 1.

An hour of wolves and shattered wallets when the Age of Travis Kelce comes crashing down, but it is not this day! Today we fight!

By all that you hold dear on this good earth, I bid you stand, people that drafted a 33 year old tight end in round 2!

(The soldiers draw swords.)

(The hobbits, barely able to walk after having drafted Najee Harris, start climbing Mount Doom.)